ISLAMABAD: The government has approved the export of an additional 500,000 metric tons of sugar based on heavily manipulated figures of available stocks and consumption patterns, underscoring the influence of powerful sugar industry stakeholders.
This decision has raised concerns about the credibility of the cabinet and its associated bodies, which appear to be making policy decisions based on inconsistent and self-contradictory summaries.
Despite previously official figures regarding sugar stocks and consumption presented in a September 20th summary, which justified the export of 100,000 metric tons, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has now given the green light for further export based on manipulated data.
Federal Minister for Industries Rana Tanveer Hussain stated, “Due to seasonal effects, the consumption from October to December remains low, resulting in surplus stocks until January next year.” He also mentioned that mills are required to start crushing by November 21 or else face cancellation of the export permission.
Defending the decision, Industries Secretary Saif Anjum explained, “The September 20th decision was based on forecast and the latest decision is based on actual numbers,” indicating that ground consumption figures had changed.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb chaired the ECC meeting, which included several key cabinet members. The decision, however, was made on the basis of two contradictory summaries dated September 18 and October 10, both signed by Saif Anjum.
The Ministry of Finance announced, “The ECC had a thorough discussion on the proposal and, in light of recommendations from relevant stakeholders and ministries, approved the proposal for an additional export of 500,000 metric tons of surplus sugar.”
Since taking office, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has permitted the export of 790,000 tons of sugar. Notably, his family and other politically influential individuals own sugar mills. The finance ministry emphasized that the ECC discussed a summary from the Ministry of Industries, which sought approval for the export of 500,000 tons of sugar “in view of the availability of surplus stocks.”
The ministry claimed that even after accounting for exports, the sugar requirements for the remaining two months of the current crushing year would be met, and strategic reserves would be maintained.
The finance ministry stated that after considering previous exports, the remaining stocks would be 1.014 million tons as of November 30, 2024. After reserving one month’s off-take of 450,000 tons as strategic reserves, a surplus of 564,000 tons would be available.
However, a comparison of the two official summaries revealed that the government had manipulated the figures, showing that the monthly consumption was understated by 114,000 tons, or 20.2%, to create an impression of a surplus of 1.024 million tons.
Excluding the manipulation, the country would have only 336,000 tons of sugar left after exports, barely sufficient for three weeks of consumption, potentially leading to a market shortage and price hike.
On September 20, the ECC approved the export of 100,000 metric tons of sugar based on a summary from the Ministry of Industries. The summary dated September 18 indicated total consumption during the first eight and a half months of the current crushing year 2023-24 was 4.797 million tons, translating to a monthly consumption of 564,353 tons.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), and provincial cane commissioners had certified a monthly consumption of around 564,000 tons from August 16 until November 30.
Surprisingly, on October 10, Industries Secretary Saif Anjum signed another summary approved by the ECC, contradicting the previous figures. The ECC was informed that there was consensus among the provincial cane commissioners, FBR, and PSMA that total consumption during the last 10 months (up to the end of September) was 5.456 million tons, or 545,060 tons per month.
In a clear sign of manipulation, the ECC was told that consumption for the next two months would be only 900,000 tons, at a rate of 450,000 tons per month, a reduction of 114,000 tons or 20.2% compared to previous trends.
If the verified figures from September are taken into account, Pakistan will be left with only 336,000 tons of sugar after the fresh exports, leading to a shortage for about one and a half months.
Additionally, the ECC approved a summary submitted by the Ministry of Energy for compensation to the families of deceased Chinese employees of the Port Qasim Electric Power Company. Two Chinese nationals were killed and one injured in a suicide attack on October 6. The ECC approved $516,000 in compensation for the family of each deceased Chinese national
