ISLAMABAD: Short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), surged to 15.02% in the week ending October 17, driven by rising prices of perishable products and pulses.
After a brief one-week decline, the SPI-based inflation recorded a modest increase, rising by 0.28% from the previous week, according to official data released on Friday.
Causes of the Inflation Surge
The primary contributors to the inflation surge were the increased prices of perishable food items such as tomatoes and pulses. Despite a marginal decline in petrol prices in recent weeks, this was offset by rising vegetable prices.
Historical Context
In March, SPI saw a decline after staying above 40% for 11 weeks, starting from 29% recorded on November 8, 2023. Weekly inflation peaked at 48.35% year-on-year in early May 2023 but decelerated to as low as 24.4% by late August that year. However, it surged past 40% again during the week ending November 16, 2023.
Week-on-Week Price Changes
Items that saw the most significant week-on-week price increases included:
- Tomatoes: 26.24%
- Pulse Moong: 9.86%
- Pulse Gram: 3.15%
- Wheat Flour: 2.10%
- Diesel: 2.01%
- LPG: 1.50%
- Garlic: 1.31%
- Chicken: 0.96%
- Eggs: 0.68%
- Mustard Oil: 0.65%
- Firewood: 0.35%
Conversely, items with the most significant price declines included:
- Onions: 7.02%
- Bananas: 2.83%
- Gur: 1.82%
- Potatoes: 1.15%
- Pulse Mash: 0.72%
- Rice Irri-6/9: 0.40%
- Sugar: 0.27%
- Rice Basmati Broken: 0.09%
Annual Price Changes
On an annual basis, the items with the highest price increases included:
- Gas Charges for Q1: 570%
- Pulse Gram: 80.85%
- Onions: 51.32%
- Tomatoes: 36.81%
- Chicken: 34.53%
- Pulse Moong: 33.23%
- Powdered Milk: 25.37%
- Beef: 23.62%
- Shirting: 17.05%
- Cooked Daal: 14.41%
- Georgette: 13.22%
- Ladies Sandal: 12.52%
Conversely, items that saw the most significant annual price declines included:
- Wheat Flour: 32.20%
- Electricity Charges for Q1: 20.32%
- Chillies Powder: 20%
- Diesel: 17.05%
- Petrol: 12.77%
- Cooking Oil (5-litre): 9.10%
- Rice Basmati Broken: 8.18%
- Sugar: 7.31%
- Eggs: 6.24%
- Bread: 5.03%
- Vegetable Ghee (2.5 kg): 4.93%
- Washing Soap: 1.61%
Overview
The SPI, which tracks the prices of 51 items collected from 50 markets in 17 cities, is computed weekly to assess the prices of essential commodities and services. The data showed that the prices of 19 items increased, nine decreased, and 23 remained stable compared to the previous week.
